Read More
Date: 17-1-2022
618
Date: 14-2-2022
1095
Date: 14-2-2022
636
|
In identical experiments, an Allais paradox occurs when the addition of an independent event influences choice behavior. Consider the choices in the following table (Kahneman and Tversky 1979).
lottery | 1 to 33 | 34 | 35 to 100 | preference |
0 | 18% | |||
82% | ||||
0 | 0 | 83% | ||
0 | 17% |
In Experiment 1, a choice of and was given, and most participants picked . In Experiment 2, a choice of and was given, and most participants picked .
This observed pattern violates the independence axiom, since in both experiments, the payoff is identical if a ball is picked, while if the event is disregarded, the two experiments are identical.
To see it another way, consider the event to be a black box that is always received if the random ball value is . Knowing or not knowing the contents of the black box should not influence behavior.
Allais, M. "Le comportement de l'homme rationnel devant le risque: Critique des postulats et axiomes de l'école américaine." Econometrica 21, 503-546, 1953.
Allais, M. "An Outline of My Main Contributions to Economic Science." Amer. Econ. Rev. 87, 3-12, 1997.
Fishburn, P. C. Utility Theory for Decision Making. New York: Wiley, 1970.
Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk." Econometrica 47, 263-292, 1979.
Kreps, D. M. Notes on the Theory of Choice. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, p. 192, 1988.
Kulish, M. "The Independence Axiom: A Survey." May 2002. http://www2.bc.edu/~kulish/papers/indepb.pdf.Savage, L. J. The Foundations of Statistics, 2nd ed. New York: Dover, 1972.
|
|
تفوقت في الاختبار على الجميع.. فاكهة "خارقة" في عالم التغذية
|
|
|
|
|
أمين عام أوبك: النفط الخام والغاز الطبيعي "هبة من الله"
|
|
|
|
|
قسم شؤون المعارف ينظم دورة عن آليات عمل الفهارس الفنية للموسوعات والكتب لملاكاته
|
|
|